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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          09/26 07:51

   Cotton Buffaloed by Ian

   The cotton market has traded higher to lower overnight as it watches the 
path of Hurricane Ian. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market has traded higher to lower overnight as it watches the 
path of Hurricane Ian. At one time the storm was projected to make a direct hit 
on the South Georgia cotton crop, but for now has somewhat wobbled east. As of 
this writing the projected landfall is north of Tampa Bay. Still, that landing 
will bring huge episodes of rain (5 to 8 inches) and high winds (40mph to 
70mph) which will result in damage to the Georgia crop. Then it is forecast to 
move up into the Carolinas, but Ian can certainly change directions on a whim.

   The U.S. dollar posted new highs for its move overnight. For the first time 
we are reading that other analysts are now suggesting the Dollar Index will 
eventually test its all-time high of 121.19. Several Fed Governors are speaking 
at several different forums this week, promoting the need for higher interest 
rates. A higher dollar is negative to U.S. agricultural exports.

   Monday afternoon USDA will update the condition of the cotton crop via its 
Weekly Progress Report. To some degree, Monday's data may be a moot point if 
Ian unloads on the Southeastern cotton crop this weekend. As of last week, the 
bolls opening category stood at 50%. This is the most vulnerable stage of the 
crop for heavy winds and rains.   

   Friday's Commitment-of-Traders Report from the CTFC showed some interesting 
swings in ownership. Commercials were 49,700 contracts net short, an increase 
of 4,970 contracts. The non-commercials, that is the managed-money funds, had 
sold some 6,040 contracts, reducing their new long position to 42,093 contracts.

   Monday, support for December cotton is at 91.60 cents and 90.30 cents, with 
resistance at 94.60 cents and 97.00 cents. Monday morning's estimated volume is 
5,885 contracts.  

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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