DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/18 07:51

   Cotton Creeps Lower Thursday

   With price action discouraging even the most ardent bull, the cotton market 
can hardly raise its head Thursday. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   With price action discouraging even the most ardent bull, the cotton market 
can hardly raise its head Thursday. From the April 1 high, the market has 
cascaded some 1,400 points lower, posting lower closings 10 out of the previous 
12 sessions. With that, the market has become extremely oversold. 

   USDA released its weekly Export Sales and Shipments report Thursday morning, 
publishing the following data:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 146,100 running bales (RB) for 2023/2024 were 
up 79% from the previous week and 64% from the prior four-week average. 
Increases primarily for China (92,600 RB, including decreases of 3,500 RB), 
Pakistan (9,600 RB), Vietnam (9,000 RB, including 1,800 RB switched from China 
and 100 RB switched from South Korea), Bangladesh (5,500 RB), and El Salvador 
(3,900 RB), were offset by reductions for Costa Rica (600 RB).

   "Net sales of 80,100 RB for 2024/2025 were primarily for Honduras (45,100 
RB), Peru (10,500 RB), Pakistan (6,600 RB), Bangladesh (6,600 RB), and Mexico 
(6,500 RB).

   "Exports of 266,700 RB were down 3% from the previous week and 24% from the 
prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (112,700 RB), 
Pakistan (46,700 RB), Vietnam (36,400 RB), Turkey (27,100 RB), and Mexico 
(7,600 RB).

   "Net sales of Pima totaling 2,700 RB for 2023/2024 were down 66% from the 
previous week and 57% from the prior four-week average. Increases reported for 
India (2,500 RB, including 500 RB switched from Italy), Brazil (400 RB), 
Bangladesh (200 RB), Thailand (100 RB), and Vietnam (100 RB), were offset by 
reductions for Italy (500 RB) and Japan (100 RB).

   "Exports of 5,900 RB were down 63% from the previous week and 12% from the 
prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (3,100 RB), 
China (700 RB), Brazil (700 RB), Egypt (400 RB), and Italy (300 RB)."

   Spot May will enter its delivery period next week on April 24. Coming into 
Thursday's trade, the open interest for the May contract stands at 19,200. In 
addition, ICE exchange stocks have reached 166,190 bales, which is the highest 
they have been since June 2021.

   The U.S. dollar is trading two-sided Thursday, as traders assessed the 
outlook for U.S. interest rates. The Greenback has been on the rise lately amid 
a slew of strong domestic economic data, which has upended the hopes for 
meaningful rate cuts in the near term. Additionally, the warring situation in 
the Middle East has caused the dollar to be the world's safe-harbor asset.

   For Thursday, chart support for July cotton stands at 80.40 cents and 79.85 
cents, with 84.50 and 86.20 as resistance. Thursday morning's estimated volume 
stands at 9,860 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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