DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/30 08:02

   Cotton Suffers Month's End Selling

   In something of an overnight surprise, the cotton market took an even worse 
turn amid end-of-the-month squaring. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   In something of an overnight surprise, the cotton market took an even worse 
turn amid end-of-the-month squaring. Certain speculators had already been 
liquidating their net long positions, but in closing out their month's books, 
apparently there was the need to really flatten their positions.

   Monday afternoon, USDA reported that the planting progress for the 2024 crop 
is proceeding briskly. The five-year average for this time of year is 14% 
planted, but current data has the 2024 crop at 15% complete. 

   The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and will announce its interest rate 
intentions on Wednesday. Traders are not expecting any sort of change. In fact, 
now some think it will be December, if even then, before the central bank will 
lower rates.

   Weather-wise the six-to-ten and the eight-to-fourteen-day forecasts call for 
above to much above normal temperatures across much of the U.S. Cotton Belt. 
The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor will be updated Tuesday, but its results will 
not be released until Thursday morning.

   There were zero notices Tuesday against the spot May contract. The May 
contract expires on May 8.

   For Tuesday, chart support for July cotton stands at 78.00 cents and 77.50 
cents, with 79.80 cents and 80.90 cents as resistance. Tuesday morning's 
estimated volume stands at 27,105 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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